McDonald's (McDonald's) Predictability Rank

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What is McDonald's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

McDonald's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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McDonald's (McDonald's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MCD:Mexico 1MCD:Italy MDOd:UK 0R16:UK MDO0:Germany MDO:Germany MDO:Germany MDO:Germany MDO:Germany MCDS:Canada MCDC34:Brazil MCD:Austria MCD:Argentina

Address

110 North Carpenter Street, Chicago, IL, USA, 60607

Website

https://www.investor.mcdonalds.com

McDonald's is the largest restaurant owner-operator in the world, with 2022 system sales of $116 billion across more than 40,000 stores and 115 markets. McDonald's pioneered the franchise model, building its footprint through partnerships with independent restaurant franchisees and master franchise partners around the globe. The firm earns roughly 60% of its revenue from franchise royalty fees and lease payments, with most of the remainder coming from company-operated stores across its three core segments: the United States, internationally operated markets, and international developmental/licensed markets.

Executives

Heidi B Capozzi	officer: EVP - Chief People Officer	C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Joseph M. Erlinger	officer: President, McDonald's USA	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Marion K. Gross	officer: EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Christopher J Kempczinski	director, officer: President and CEO	THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Brian S Rice	officer: EVP-Global Chief Info. Officer	7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Edith Morgan Flatley	officer: EVP - Global CMO	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Ian Frederick Borden	officer: EVP & CFO	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Enrique Jr Hernandez	director, other: Non-Exec Chairman of the Board	INTER-CON SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 210 SOUTH DELACEY AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91105
Desiree Ralls-morrison	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Off. and Sec.	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Manuel Jm Steijaert	officer: EVP - Chief Customer Officer	110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Jo Sempels	officer: President, IDL	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Catherine A. Hoovel	officer: SVP - Corporate Controller	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Catherine M. Engelbert	director	110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Rogers John W Jr	director	ARIEL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 200 EAST RANDOLPH DRIVE, SUITE 2900, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jennifer L Taubert	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933